US Macro Dashboard
The numbers that move the whole market — inflation, the Fed's policy rate, jobs and the
Treasury yield curve — in one place, charted from official government data. When stocks fall
broadly and no company news explains it, the reason is usually on this page.
Market regime — where the market stands
Index valuation ratios say little about the next year (CAPE explains ~5% of one-year returns, ~30% of ten-year).
These gauges describe the market's state: each against its own history, with the long-run median as the
dashed line — above it or below it is what "high" and "low" mean here. Descriptions of conditions, not instructions.
Market mood — how much risk investors are taking
Seven readings — six from our own price and credit data, one from the on-chain price ladders of the largest names — each placed on a fixed 0–100 band (0 = fear, 100 = greed) and averaged.
The scale is documented under each reading, so the number can be checked, not just believed. A description of the present mood,
not a forecast: extremes have more often been followed by a move the other way than by more of the same — on average, with many exceptions.
What the rate market has priced
A Treasury bill's yield is roughly the average policy rate the market expects over the bill's life. Set against today's
effective fed funds rate, each maturity says how much change is priced and in which direction. Read in tenths of a
25 bp move: bills carry a small liquidity basis, so this is the direction and rough size of what is priced, not a meeting-by-meeting table.